Российский государственный
гидрометеорологический университет
Уважаемые преподаватели, студенты и сотрудники РГГГМУ! Открытая лекция Андерса Перссона состоится 28 апреля 2016 г. в 15:15 - 16:30, ауд. 209, 1 корпус РГГМУ.


Тема: The role of statistics and probability in meteorology (I)

Abstract: How come that mathematical statistics and probability theory are relativity young sciences? In a short historical exposé it will be
shown that the understanding of "randomness" had to wait from profound philosophical changes during the Enlightenment in the 1700's. In this lecture it will also be shown how probability theory can highly improve the value of weather forecasts in surprisingly non-intuitive ways. By expressing the "uncertainty" in the forecasts in a clever way their value increase rather than decrease which is the popular conception. To improve deterministic weather forecasts is a long and expensive endeavour, at best they will improve by one day per decade. Applying "probability thinking" can immediately improve the weather forecasts for the cost of almost nothing.
In the next lecture (II) it will be shown that although the mathematics in elementary statistics and probability theory is quite simple, the conclusions based on statistical inference often is far from straight forward. "What looks good can be bad, what looks bad can be good" (Tim Palmer).



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